Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Oil Bubble

[Recientemente he pensado mucho sobre lo que se discute en el mercado respecto al 'oil/commodity bubble'. Es un tema relativamente interesante y probablemente un poco complejo. Por esa razon me encanto cuando un amigo me envio el siguiente articulo que explica un poco la interaccion entre derivados y spot prices]

Econbrowser: Oil bubble (May 17, 2008)

How speculation may be contributing to the most recent moves in oil prices.
An important recent trend in management of pension and hedge funds is the increasing allocation of investment dollars to commodity speculation. There are lots of ways you can do this. Perhaps the simplest is to purchase, say, the July NYMEX oil futures contract. If you'd bought that contract Friday, it would enable you to take delivery of oil in Cushing, Oklahoma some time in July for $126/barrel. As a pension fund, you don't actually want to receive that oil, so in early June you'd plan on selling that contract to someone else and using the proceeds to buy the August contract. If oil prices go up and you can sell the contract for more than $126/barrel next month, you will have made a profit. By rolling over near-term futures contracts in this way, your "investment" will earn a return that follows the path of oil prices.

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