Tablet Car Stereo

[Update: March 2012]

Clearly somebody is listening. Good luck Devium and Thank you Kickstarter for getting Devium up: http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/devium/dash-the-smart-phone-car-stereo?ref=search

[Originally Posted: Sep 2011]

Need

I think we are all tired of not being able to use our smartphone or tablet as our car stereo. I have all my music in my mobile device, all my contact list, everything that I need. Now you are asking me to plug my mobile device to the car system through a simple cable? You are providing me with another screen on my car? Why? I already have a screen, a large screen -actually- if you look at my ipad. Why? I just want to be able to plug my iPad into the dash of my car. Plane and simple.

Description

Develop a box that can be installed in any car that would allow for mobile devices to be plug in. The end result is that the screen of the mobile device will be flat to the dashboard of the car. It is not a cable or something that holds my iPad. It ends up being my car stereo with ALOT more capabilities than my regular GPS/Car Stereo.

Potential

Let assume that you can charge individuals or car manufacturers something like $20 for each box. There are 50M cars sold a year. That is a US$1B market. Not bad.

Flash Sales Meet Door-To-Door SalesForce

Need:

In Latin America is very common for someone to travel to the US buy clothes and then sell them back to their friends in their home country. Clothes in the US are cheaper than in Latin America (in general). Sadly if you want to import a bunch of clothes to a Latin American country is not THAT easy. In certain cases there are tariffs but in most cases you find wholesalers that own the right to sell that brand in the country. Because most of this wholesalers sell their brands indirectly to small retailers the markups end up being outrageous compare to the price in the US. Even if the wholesalers have their own retail, those location cost a fortunes to maintain and again the markups needed to make some margin have to be outrageous.

In Latin America, women want to buy clothes that are less expensive from a source that they can trust. That is why they purchase clothes and accessories from their friends that travel to the US and bring stuff back to sell.

Description:

Initially we thought we can just bring a ideeli.com, gilt.com or a ruelala.com to Latin America and that would be enough. Sadly we saw that there were already several players trying to do exactly that in the largest Latin American markets (i.e. Mexico, Brazil and Argentina). Those players (Privalia, BrandsClub, Geelbe) where already fighting for the excess inventory of all the top brands in those countries. As the Groupon-like in this region, they were fighting to death. In this competitive market you want to be different.

Looking at what works in Latin America you cannot avoid looking at the cosmetic industry that has perfected Direct Selling. The Avon, Belcorp, Oriflame, Natura of this world have leveraged our personalities needs and drive to sell their products.

Combining Flash Sale with Direct Selling seems to be a perfect combination for women all over Latin America. Flash Sale provides discounts on top brands and Direct Selling provides trust in the transaction (something that lacks online transaction in Latin America). The idea is simple. Create a platform like ideeli, gilt and ruelala that can be downloaded to a tablet (i.e. offline capabilities). Provide an inexpensive tablet to your direct salesforce. Create a cost structure similar to avon, belcopr, oriflame and natura alikes. Build your company.

Potential:

Difficult to quantify but you can probably make more than Privalia today (EUR$168M). 

Post Mortem e-Services

Need: 

In this new era of emails, accounts and passwords, I feel that there is a need to share key account information with my family if something happens to me. A lot of my important posessions are in an internet account of some sort and not in my apartment. The vague idea that something could happen to me without being able to share the password to this 'memory' e-vault is daunting.

Description: 

It would be a very basic application that let you set up the account information (login and passwords) that you want to share with your love ones. It may be customizable so you can share certain information with some but not others. The service would be pretty simple, it would ask you every X number of weeks/months if you are still alive. If you don't respond in Y number of weeks/months, the application would run itself sharing the information that you wanted with the people that you wanted. The information could be anything from legal documents (will) to just random files/info (login/passwords, photos, etc).

Attractiveness: 

This would be a subscription model. The user would pay for it monthly until you not longer need the app (i.e. you are dead). I thought about 'death' as the logical milestone event but this could be use in other ways too (I just haven't thought about them... yet). You can probably charge $1 per month for this service (I would definitively pay $12 a year for it). Not sure about how many people would buy it but I'm sure it could become a very nice lifestyle business.

The Kickstarter for Kids Education

[UPDATE: JAN 2013]

Since I posted my idea I saw this very interesting commercial from Dodge trying to sell cars through something like a wedding registry (How to Change Buying Cars Forever). I thought that it was pretty innovative. If a car can be sold using this method, ANYTHING CAN. I like UrGift.in even more.

[Originally Posted: Jun 2011]

NEED: 

Parents keep getting too many toys for their children. So many toys that the children end up not playing with them because they are overwhelmed with choices. Friends and Family keep giving parents toys for their children because that is the best gift option (i.e. the chance of choosing a gift being that a toy that the children wont like is almost null). A solution that some parents have opted for is to keep some toys unwrapped so they can be re-gifted later.

Another incredible need that parents suffer from is the raising price of education. Parents have started to invest more and more on education funds to be able to afford higher education for their children when they grow up.

DESCRIPTION: 

Create a website for parents that can work like a wedding registry. Instead of being for a wedding this website would be for the child´s future education. Each parent can personalize what he/she wants to include in the wishlist but it would be divided in low ticket items (i.e. books for freshmen year) so any Family member or Friend can give whatever amount of money they want to. The money will go towards an account managed by an asset manager that would promise some type of return. The website can be tied to a mobile app that can make it more social so, for example, when grandma wants to give her grandson something, the app will remind her that there is a better option for her grandson: His future education. I am sure I can build on this idea by adding some gamification to the equation plus some incentives from the asset manager, etc., but I am sure you get the idea. It can even work like Kickstarter where there are very low ticket options (e.g. $1) so you can tap into the gift card industry and steal some share from that market too)

ATTRACTIVENESS: 

The business model is pretty simple. We will charge a fee to the asset manager for bringing money to the table. The Gifting Industry is difficult to size as people purchase stuff without necessarily telling you what would be the use for it. Some sources value the gift industry in the US as a whole at over $300 billion. I am sure even if we take a very small piece of this pie and multiply it by a 1% fee to the asset manager you still make several million dollars.

Community Wi-Fi Network

Update

Since I posted this idea I discovered that there are several projects trying to do exactly this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wireless_community_network

[Originally posted on Dec 2010]

Need: 

The other day I thought about this idea of having a community wi-fi network. I am sure it has happened to you as you are traveling or driving somewhere your iPhone (or other device) will ask you if you want to join a random wi-fi. These random wi-fi networks will change as you continue traveling because you start losing some connections and gaining others.
Now, imagine if all these random connection were tied to each other. So you iPhone would jump from one network to the other like cellphone towers. The only thing that you would need is to (1) be able to standardized all network security and connection settings (2) avoid the free-rider.

Description:

The way I thought we could do this is by creating a community wi-fi. You would need to register your own Wi-Fi network to be able to access this community network. This would avoid the free-rider problem. The key problem that I haven't been able to resolve is how to avoid security problems.

Potential:

It can probably be a subscription model but I'm not sure how much people will pay for the service. It would be more probably something that is free or freemium.

Update [10/2011]: I just heard that there is several of these type of networks around the US. Not sure if they work exactly like I described but they are call similarly "community network".

A Great App for Renting a Car

[UPDATE: Oct 10th, 2012]

Since I posted this idea in 2011 I have discovered a startup that is trying to do something similar: SILVERCAR (www.silvercar.com). I believe Silvercar was founded in early 2012 as its website in April 26th, 2012 looked like this: http://web.archive.org/web/20120426215703/http://silvercar.com/. Since then they have raised $11.5M from CrunchFund, Dave Morin and Others (http://techcrunch.com/tag/silvercar/). Silvercar is the airport car rental experience reimagined for you, the connected business traveler. They put the power back in your hands, enabling you to bypass lines, avoid complexity and frustration, and drive away in a world-class car at a great price (http://www.crunchbase.com/company/silvercar). @SilverCar is based in Austin, Texas. I hope they do great and revolutionize the (airport) car rental industry. Finally something new in that boring industry!... I cannot wait to see it at LAX and NYC.

[ORIGINALLY POSTED: April 1, 2011]

NEED: 

Would love to have an app in my iPhone or iPad that would help me choose the car at my rent-a-car. Imagine if you are on the plane (and it has wi-fi) and you can browse the cars available in your iPad before landing. The need is simple, lets make renting a car much simpler than it is right now. You normally need to stop by the counter to get your car assign. You normally need to get whatever the person at the counter wants to assign you. In the best cases when you have some type of status you walk to the car without stopping at the counter but you don't have any saying to which car is assigned to you.

DESCRIPTION: 

What we need is a iPhone/iPad/name-your-device App that would allow you to browse the cars available at your rental car company at that moment in a specific location. Needless to say that the customer wants to see pictures of the actual car in the parking spot so you would need to figure that out. Maybe you start with standard photos (inside and outside pics) and later move to a video camera for the outside view. This would help also with the need to check for availability. We will also need a system similar to the ZipCar system that allows you to use your CARD as the key to any vehicle. You would also need a system that confirms what car is in what parking spot to make sure it is available. This can get complicated in location with a lot of traffic. My take on this is simply have (a) a GPS locator in each car (similar to an iPhone) to guarantee the car hasn’t left the lot and (b) a check-in point that matches each car that enters the lot to a parking spot (this can be done when the person at the rent-a-car is receiving the car).

POTENTIAL: 

This could probably revolutionize the rental car industry. You can play it as unique proposition from one rental car company or you can develop the technology/system and sell it to all rental cars.

Working Remotely

Need: 

As online post-secondary degrees further penetrate the education market, there is a need for graduates of these degrees to find jobs outside their city of residence.  Most of them are not going to be able to afford (or want) to move to another city. There is a need for a solution that would allow these graduates and potential “national” employers to work something out.

Description: 

The big problem here is that the employer needs different types of control. A software package can solve these issues partially but there is a need for something else. Maybe there is an opportunity for very basic office locations that can be rented and monitored by the employer. A LA-based employer with an employee working in Phoenix could rent a cubicle in the Phoenix location and have access not only to the software his/her employee is using but to the monitoring system in that location.

Potential: 

There are currently 2MM people enrolled in online degrees in the United States. This number is expected to grow in the future at a rate of ~10% per year.

.

The New Facebook

Need:

People are being overwhelmed by emails and marketing from different sites and companies about brand-related communications. You have the groupon and gilt-a-likes sending you discount and promotions every day. At the beginning people liked the idea and open and read every email. After a while people started to feel overwhelmed and aggregating sites started to become popular. Nevertheless there is no real solution today for the need of the people to communicate with their favorite brands.

Description: 

The idea here is to create an application or portal that can provide some solution to this need. It could be a facebook app or several facebook apps too. I am more incline that it has to be something different. Something not related to facebook. 

Potential:

The size of this opportunity is relatively large. If successful it can become the sole communication channel for brands, avoiding any other type of new media communication. Everything would be centralized in one location where consumer know they can find what they are looking for. From information, to product and services.

Changing Directions

I have trouble tracking business ideas that I come up with. I forget to write them down or share them with someone. I believe that as you share your ideas with someone they either get better or just discarded. This is a very useful process for any entrepreneur.

For that reason I have decided that I’m going to track my ideas via my blog. From now on, I’m going to transform this blog into a collection of business ideas. Some of them will be really promising; some would be just a basic idea. Given that I’m a consultant I’m going to use a simple framework to organize these ideas.

The framework is as following:

Need: Description of the need that the business idea is trying to satisfy.

Description: How is the business idea satisfying the need?

Potential: A very rough approximation for market potential (customer base, size, or something else)

Let’s see how it goes.

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U.S. Strains to Stop Arms Flow

American officials say they have been frustrated in their efforts to block Syria, Iran, North Korea and other countries from selling arms to militants.

 

I wonder if American officials are equally frustrated in their efforts to block the Southern U.S. states from selling arms to Mexican Drug cartels and militia.

 

Wouldn’t you think that is equally important?

 

Read More:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/07/world/07wikileaks-weapons.html?emc=na

 

La Siguiente Revolucion Industrial

Despues de escuchar a Shai Agassi hablar sobre su plan radical para convertir a varios países en libres de petróleo para el 2020, lo único que puedo hacer es compartirlo con ustedes.

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/spa/shai_agassi_on_electric_cars.html

Which Countries Would Prefer to Raise Taxes or Cut Spending

Today The Economist published a survey from GlobeScan and PIPA for the BBC World Service that asked over 22,000 people in 22 countries which of these paths they would prefer their governments to take to reduce their country’s deficits: Increasing taxes, Cutting public services, Both, Neither or Other

(see link below for the picture)

In general, most people favored ‘Cutting public services’ more than anything else. More than 75% of people in France, Spain and Brazil really believe that ‘Cutting public services’ is the key to reducing the deficit in their countries. People in other countries like Britain, Mexico, Australia, Canada and Germany divide their opinion between ‘Cutting public services’ and ‘increasing taxes’. One quarter of the people in Russia and Turkey want their government to focus in neither ‘Cutting public services’ nor ‘increasing taxes’.

The interesting question here is what are the current level of ‘government spending’ and ‘effective taxes’. Is this survey just showing a return to the mean? Should we think that Brazil, Spain and France have economies more dependent on government spending? Should we think that Britain has a more balanced economy? What factors are influencing these answers?

Link to The Economist:

http://www.economist.com/node/17140165?story_id=17140165&fsrc=rss

Evolution to Diversity

Since the 70s large and small firms in the US have been trying to become more diverse. The word "diversity" has had different implications with the pass of time. It started with race and gender decades ago. Nowadays it includes sexual orientation, cultural background, religion, among others.

The "business case for diversity", theorizes that in a global marketplace, a company that employs a diverse workforce (both men and women, people of many generations, people from ethnically and racially diverse backgrounds etc.) is better able to understand the demographics of the marketplace it serves and is thus better equipped to thrive in that marketplace than a company that has a more limited range of employee demographics (From Wikipedia)

In the path to diversity I believe there are 3 clear steps that a firm needs to take to become truely globally diverse.

1. Respect Each Other
First step of the process is to have a respectful environment. Starting with the CEO or President, the company need to respect the differences between the members of the firm. Respect is the stepping stone to a better culture. In this step I see firms that have their own diverse organization or affiliated groups. Here is where firms try to build a pipeline of diverse candidates using their current respectful culture to attract them. In certain cases, the firm will try to 'train' that diverse candidate in the ways of the firm.

2. Understand the Differences
When members of the firm are respectful they can start the path of trying to understand their differences. This step is more difficult to accomplish that what it seems. If you believe your firm has accomplish this step you are probably in the first step. Understanding the differences require a change in processes. Your believe that 'your way is the right way' has to change. There is a reason why the world doesn't operate the same way. If you still believe that your part of the world has it all figured out that is probably a sign of not being there yet. Those processes that change are not only related to recruiting, they are probably 75-85% of all your processes including but not limited to recruiting, training, retaining, promotion, and operation.

3. Cherish the Differences
By knowing that there are different and sometime 'better' ways to operate an entity, your firm can take advantage of these differences. Firms that have changed their processes to become more diverse are now empowered to cherish their differences. Firms that have accomplish this step can use their culture to be more adaptive/responsive to/of client's need. Those firms would probably enjoy of more innovative ideas and have a better chance of solving the next generation of problems.

Hedging Sadness

After today's lost of Brazil against Netherlands in the World Cup, I realized that there should be a market to hedge the feeling that a Soccer fan feels when his/her team loses in events of such importance.

I would definitively pay some money to hedge this sadness. I want something more sophisticated than just betting against my team. I want a full sadness coverage. Something that covers me in case my team is eliminated in the first round of the World Cup. Then something else for the second round until de final.

Lo que Necesita Colombia: Estabilidad, certeza jurídica y seriedad para los proyectos de inversión

[Quiero republicar un pedazo de esta entrevista con Michelle Bachelet –ex presidenta chilena— porque me pareció muy interesante. Para ver el texto completo por favor vayan al: http://www.semana.com/noticias-mundo/no-dejamos-trabajo-mercado/139502.aspx]

 

 

SEMANA: Colombia está en proceso de negociar tratados de libre comercio. ¿Qué beneficios le ha traído a Chile tener una economía abierta?

M.B: Chile es un país pequeño. Enfrentados al desafío de abrirnos al mundo, los gobiernos de la Concertación no dudamos que el camino era la apertura, la diversificación de las exportaciones, la promoción del libre comercio y el intercambio comercial con todo el mundo. Para eso implementamos políticas de fomentos de la competitividad que se traducen en el desarrollo de clusters o áreas productivas clave que están en condiciones de pararse de igual a igual con los productos y servicios de economías más grandes y desarrolladas. Hoy tenemos acceso -sin aranceles o con aranceles muy bajos- a un mercado mundial de 3.000 millones de consumidores, y nuestros productos están en Asia, Estados Unidos, Oceanía, China, América Latina, Europa, lo que ha implicado un salto enorme. Ahora estamos ampliando los acuerdos de libre comercio a las áreas de servicios y compras públicas.

SEMANA: Esa apertura suele ser muy buena para algunos sectores, pero no necesariamente para la generalidad. ¿Cómo hicieron para que la prosperidad de los empresarios y los inversionistas elevara el nivel de vida de tantos chilenos? 
 
M.B: Permítame hacerle una precisión. Chile, durante los últimos 20 años, que son los de la Concertación, tuvo una definición estratégica en el empeño por mejorar la calidad de vida de los chilenos y chilenas. Me refiero a la educación, la salud, los salarios, las viviendas y los apoyos gubernamentales en subsidios a las familias. Es decir, no le dejamos el trabajo al mercado, al chorreo como dicen algunos, hubo aquí un rol del Estado con políticas públicas definidas y orientadas hacia el bienestar. Y dicho esto, le agrego que no es posible este bienestar sin el sector privado. Chile ofrece a los inversionistas chilenos y extranjeros estabilidad, certeza jurídica y seriedad para sus proyectos de inversión.

SEMANA: A pesar de su popularidad, usted no intentó cambiar las reglas para quedarse en el poder. ¿Qué piensa de la ola reeleccionista en América Latina?

M.B: Las leyes chilenas no permiten la reelección, y si alguien quiere hacerlo tiene que promover una reforma constitucional. Esta es una pregunta que me hicieron muchas veces. Y le voy a contestar lo que he dicho siempre: En la política hay que ser ético y estético. Y de ninguna manera hacer un traje a la medida del gobernante.

Cognitive vs Non-cognitive Skills

How valuable is to teach our kids to build there confidence before building their intellect. Lately I have been reading some parenting books as I am about to have my first child and thought about my own path to knowledge. I realized that the most valuable skill that I developed as a child and later as a young adult was to constantly build my self confidence to overcome obstacle and failures in life.

For an adult self-confidence is rooted in our self-image (who we are, what we have accomplished, how the world view us, etc). Those adults that have developed greater self-confidence are accustomed to focused on those metrics that put them on top. For example, athletes value stamina, speed or physical strength; bankers value networking and number skills; etc. A confident banker is not going to value "physical strength" above "networking skills" because it would go against it self-image of a successful professional.

For kids having a clear path to building self confidence is a little trickier as they have not yet developed an area of expertise. Kids do not know in what they are good so they do not know in what metrics to focus. Even worst, kids are easily convince that the metrics that matter are those imposed by a minority of kids, reinforced by our stereotypical movies and entertainment shows (e.g. beauty over intelligence). Most of the self-image comes from how parents and friends perceive them.

Here is were we need to change as a society. We need to start putting real effort to building self-confidence in kids by including this objective in the curriculum of schools. Self-confidence is not a substitute of knowledge but a necessary complement.

Unfair Judgement Against Tiger Woods

On December 11, 2009, Woods announced he would take an indefinite leave from professional golf to focus on his marriage after he admitted infidelity. His multiple infidelities were revealed by over a dozen women, through many worldwide media sources.Woods returned to competition for the 2010 Masters on April 8, 2010, after a break lasting 20 weeks (Taken from Wikipedia)

By the time the media had revealed the number of infidelities Tiger Woods have had, the world (or more likely the U.S.) had already started its backlash against the sportsman's principles. The key argument to judge him so harshly was that Tiger Woods is a leading figure not only in golf but in sports in general. The U.S. population wanted Tiger to behave in a way that could set a good example to other people in and out of his field.

The basic conclusion with this reaction is that U.s. Americans believe that their leaders should set a good example for the entire population. This is the same principle that politicians in the U.S. are governed by. If a leader behaves badly or incorrectly, then his/her followers (e.g. the population) would required that leader to surrender its current leadership position and ask for forgiveness. This type of event has happened repeatedly over and over in U.S. history.

The problem arises when this basic argument is taken to the next level. Should the U.S. as the leader (or one of the leaders) of the world be held to the same standards and principles governing its population? Should the U.S. ask for forgiveness when behaving improperly? Should the U.S. government ask its population (and the world) for forgiveness for the mistakes made in the past?

Given that the U.S. government is just an entity representing the country's citizens, the U.S. citizens should be responsible for the U.S. government's actions. Why haven't the U.S. Americans held their government to the same standards they held their leaders?? Is it because U.S. Americans don't view their country as a moral leader in the world? Or is it just because a country should not be regulated by the same principles its population is?

My most logical explanation is that there is a voice in the U.S. that has asked for this type of behavior from its government but it hasn't been strong enough. So basically there are not enough people that care about it to make it a relevant point.

If this is the case, why do we still have this principle for each individual if the majority of the population doesn't care.

Maybe it is just about media coverage. Those leaders (being Tiger Wood or any politician) are held to a different standard not because they are leaders in their field but because they are on the eye of the media. If the media could benefit with judging the U.S. government for its mistake made against the world in the same way they benefit from the infidelities of Tiger Woods, then we could see the U.S. government be held to a different standard as the leader of the world.

Donde Se Originará la Siguiente Crisis Mundial?

Es difícil concebir cual será la próxima crisis. ¿Sera una crisis inflacionaria dada las tasas de interés tan bajas? ¿Sera una crisis fiscal dada los niveles de endeudamiento de los diferentes países? ¿Sera una crisis civil dado un cambio en el nivel de violencia o corrupción?

Desde mi perspectiva las últimas crisis económicas relacionadas con el mercado accionario han comenzado con una percepción errónea de los valores de los activos involucrados. Esta percepción errónea viene de una combinación de factores como: complejidad del proceso de valoración o del instrumento, tamaño del mercado como tal, diferencias entre los jugadores dentro del sistema y falta de una norma clara.

Por ejemplo si pensamos en lo que le paso in el 2000 con las acciones relacionadas con internet. En este no existía una norma clara de cómo valorar estas empresas y los analistas pensaron que el mecanismo de valoración tenía que ser adaptado. Exista cierta complejidad dentro del proceso porque era un segmento nuevo para todos. Para que la burbuja se explote se necesito de otros catalizadores que hicieron despertarse a los inversionistas. Los inversionistas comenzaron a pensar más sobre el valor real de la acción y como estaban generando ellos mismo tanto dinero invirtiendo en este tipo de acciones.

Luego tenemos a Enron y las mismas características se reflejan en esta situación. 1. Complejidad en la estructura de negocios y productos, 2. Tamaño relevante como para llamar la atención un agente que ejecute una diligencia debida (en este caso una periodista y no un equity analyst) y 3. El ente regulador decide que la autoregulacion es la mejor alternativa para la industria.

En el caso de las hipotecas subprime que causo la crisis actual tiene las mismas características. Interesantemente aunque muchas personas sentían que existía una percepción errónea sobre el mercado hipotecario desde el 2005, este sistema no exploto hasta varios años después. La razón fue porque i) los jugadores estaban haciendo mucho dinero, ii) por lo que a nadie le importaba el valor real del activo, iii) no existía un ente regulador que vigilara los supuestos check and balances.

Por eso para poder estimar la siguiente crisis mundial tenemos que buscar un segmento que cumpla con las siguientes tres características:

1. Tiene que ser un segmento difícil de entender; ya sea porque el proceso es complicado, por la cultura, por la geografía, o por algo más. Si es complicado y la gente está haciendo dinero en este segmento, esto quiere decir que la mayoría de inversionistas simplemente está siguiendo la marea

2. Los jugadores en este segmento tienen que tener características y principios diferentes para que exista una desinformación de las diferentes partes. Esta característica va a ser el catalizador de la percepción errónea necesaria.

3. La percepción erronea tiene que ser sobre una parte relevante o grande para el segmento (tipo subprime, internet stocks, oil prices) se vea afectado y para que tenga un efecto domino al resto de la economía.

Mi voto va por China. Yo creo que la próxima gran recesión va a estar relacionado con China. De alguna u otra forma cumple con esos tres requisitos.

La Confianza Como Sistema Regulador

Después de leer el artículo de Michael Lewis (The End of Wall Street) publicado Portfolio en Noviembre 2008 (y republicado en mi blog en el 2009) me quede pensando cómo muy pocas personas en Wall Street realmente saben que causo la gran recesión y se alinearon diferentes circunstancias para afectar la economía de la forma que la afecto. Inclusive me hizo pensar en el proceso de descubrimiento del valor (en inglés, price discovery process) de un activo, una acción o una deuda.

En el mundo de las finanzas existen varios mecanismos e instrumentos que le ayudan al inversionista a valorar un activo (como por el ejemplo el famoso flujo de cada descontado o DCF por sus siglas en ingles). Después de leer este articulo me di cuenta que quizás el proceso es mas subjetivo de lo que pensaba. Yo recordaba de mi época en banca de inversión que al final un DCF está compuesto de un sin número de suposiciones que pueden cambiar el valor del activo. Uno trataba de validar los resultados con otros métodos (como por ejemplo la valoración por múltiplos) por lo que se sentía que el valor final tenia no solamente lógica por el famoso DCF pero también porque era validado por otros analistas. Lo interesante es que al final la valoración está dada por 2 o 3 analistas estrellas que cubren la firma (los demás analistas simplemente son seguidores) y posiblemente si la empresa esta en una industria complicada de todos los analistas que la cubren una minoría realmente entiende que esta pasando.

Por eso en industrias complejas el famoso price discovery process no es tan sencillo como hacer un DCF porque los analistas que proveen la guía no están tan bien informados y la mayoría de jugadores involucrados en el proceso no les interesa encontrar el valor real de la acción sino solo hacer dinero. Estas circunstancias no son destructibles siempre y cuando no estemos hablando de una industria que abarque gran parte del sistema financiero de un país. Por ejemplo, si este problema lo tiene la industria de la educación postsecundaria, no es un problema tan grave. El problema de falta de entendimiento de la industria se reflejara en la volatilidad de los precios de las instituciones educativas que tranzan en el mercado.

El problema se encuentra cuando estas características se ven en una industria gigantesca o una industria que abarque otras industrias. Esto fue lo que sucedió con la crisis de los papeles subprime cuando se juntaron varias características o factores que causaron la gran recesión. Entre estos menciono algunos:

1. La complejidad del negocio (específicamente en el caso de los credit default swaps y demás derivadas de crédito utilizadas para crear liquidez en el mercado)

2. La poca sofisticación de los jugadores (aunque fuesen sofisticados en otros segmentos, este segmento era particularmente difícil de entender)

3. Los jugadores estaban mas preocupados por hacer dinero que por entender exactamente como estaban haciendo el dinero y los riesgos asociados con hacer ese tipo de dinero

4. No existía un ente o ley reguladora que ayudara a balancear los diferentes factores en el mercado y la desinformación de todos los jugadores (no solamente inversionistas pero también las personas que simplemente querían tener vivienda propia).

Esta recesión es claro ejemplo de lo que sucede cuando la confianza es la reguladora del sistema. En EEUU la confianza ha sido gran reguladora de muchos sistemas. Por ejemplo uno puedo devolver mercancía en EEUU porque todos confían que no están abusando del sistema. La confianza puede regular un sistema que no tenga jugadores con diferentes principios. En este caso se necesitaba una ley o un ente regulador. Esta es una de las razones por lo que esta crisis no se origino en otro país sino que se tuvo que generar en EEUU.

En Colombia o en América Latina, ya no existe confianza en que el sistema se autoregule. Se sabe que el jugador va a abusar del contrincante o del sistema de alguna manera posible, y si no existe esa manera se la inventa. Por eso en nuestros países la regulación tiene que venir de una manera clara y contundente para balancear los factores y crear un ambiente justo para todos los jugadores.

Historia de Luis Carlos Sarmiento Angulo

El pasado mes de Noviembre la revista Semana (Colombia) publicó un artículo sobre uno de los hombres más poderosos de Colombia. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Angulo es el hombre más rico de Colombia.


El artículo es interesante porque describe como Luis Carlos Sarmiento Angulo pudo llegar a convertirse en el empresario mas poderoso de Colombia sin grandes recursos, palancas o conexiones.


De las enseñanzas que me deja este articulo tenemos:


1. "Trabajar, trabajar y trabajar"... si quiere hacer dinero le toca arremangarse.
2. Uno consigue los mejores oportunidades donde hay poca competencia. Ya sea hacer un acueducto en Alvarado, o comprar el peor banco del sistema financiero, o comprar con plata en mano accionista por accionista. Entre mas dificil sea el asunto menos competencia hay.
3. Sino sabe jugar ajedrez, comience a aprender. Todo es estrategia y si puedes comenzar a deducir cuales son los posibles movimientos de tu competencia tienes una ventaja competitiva.
4. Todos los negocios comienzan por los numeros pero se vuelven realidad a punta de convicción (obviamente trabajando, trabajando y trabajando).
5. "La clave de delegar es saber supervisar."
6. El bienestar familiar se impone al bienestar económico.




Aqui esta su historia completa...


http://www.semana.com/noticias-nacion/rey-midas/131990.aspx